Thursday, November 05, 2009

No More Coopers

There aren't a lot of coopers around anymore. Or Thatchers either (they're pretty much consigned to running England and going to war with Argentina.)

But what's interesting to me is that Blockbuster is still around. My dad keeps asking me "But how will people really get movies? There has to still be a market for them." Well there's VOD and Netflix and Redbox but yeah, he's right.

Blockbuster closed hundreds of stores. But there are thousands of Blockbusters still open.

So they ain't dead yet. And lots of people in the future-predicting business (I'm talkin' to you Warner Brothers) thought they'd be long gone by now.

Predictions about the future are notoriously inaccurate. (I mean, where's my jet-pack?) Sure, things change, but it's exceedingly difficult to see in exactly what way they'll change and when. The whole pricing scheme of DVD's was predicated on everyone using VOD (about 10 years ago.) And although VOD is getting bigger, it's still a fairly insignificant part of the market. Heck, I remember an AT&T shareholders meeting where we were told that in five years every house in America would have fiber-optic running right to the computer (this was about 15 years ago).

For that matter, wasn't Microsoft supposed to be out of business by now and we'd all be using open-source software and operating systems? Now that I think about it, why aren't we all using Linux? I mean sure, none of the software I need every day for audio and video actually works on Linux but...

So what's going to happen? Will the producers of independent sci-fi disappear? Will they shrink in numbers for now and then get bigger later? Will they shrink somewhat and start to grow more slowly over the next few years?

I remember studying boom and bust "cycles" in economics, back when I thought it was a good idea to go to school. As it turns out, there are no "cycles". Economists simply can't predict them and no mathematical model can model them. As it turns out, some buisnesses are lucky. Their luck is usually attributed to skill, but statistically that doesn't seem to be the case.

So what does this all mean? Ha! I don't know! Get it!? ;-)

Hee... I slay me. Or in the words of my grandfather "Nothing beats a good team of horses."

Visual Effects Houses:

Method Studios.

Zoic Studios.

Tippit Studios
is mostly about character animation.

Anibrain out of India.


Prime Focus.

Rhythm and Hues.

No comments: